Estimating of Net Transition Probabilities in Triple Stages of Cigarette Consumption in Iranian Men

The present study was designed to estimate the net transition probabilities in triple stages of cigarette consumption in Iranian men over 15 years old.

Data from the national surveillance of risk factors of non-communicable diseases in 2011 were entered in the present study. Data of 3130 Iranian men between the ages of 15 and 69 years old were included. Individuals were divided to three groups of current smoker, past smoker and nonsmoker based on cigarette consumption. Afterwards, net transition probability of different stages of cigarette consumption over a year was assessed.

Net transition probability from nonsmoker to smoker was at its highest level until 30 years of age at 19.1 per 1000 men and then net transition reduces to reach zero per 1000 men at the age of 45 years old. However, net transition probability from smoker to nonsmoker was at a very low level until 45 years of age but, it increases afterwards to reach a plateau at the age of 64 years old. Net transition probability from smoker to nonsmoker is estimated to be 23.1 per 1000 men at the age of 69 years old.

For the first time, the present study has estimated the transition probabilities in different stages of cigarette consumption in Iranian adults. Findings showed that risk of becoming a smoker in younger individuals is much higher than the risk in middle-aged and old population. However, tendency to quit smoking is increased after the age of 45 years old. Therefore, health policy makers should concentrate on younger age groups in their preventive strategies regarding control of tobacco consumption.