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The decline in China's fertility level: a decomposition analysis.
Quanbao Jiang1, Shucai Yang1, Shuzhuo Li1
1Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, People's Republic of China.
Journal of Biosocial Science
|June 4, 2019
Summary
China's fertility decline is complex, driven by changes in marital fertility rates and marriage timing. While marital fertility initially lowered fertility, it later increased it, with marriage postponement consistently reducing fertility levels.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Population Studies
Background:
- China has experienced a significant decline in fertility levels.
- Understanding the drivers of this demographic shift is crucial for policy-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the factors contributing to the decline in China's fertility rate.
- To decompose changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) and net reproduction rate (NRR).
Main Methods:
- Utilized China's population census data from 1990, 2000, and 2010.
- Decomposed TFR changes into marital fertility rate (MFR) and proportion of married women (PMW).
- Analyzed four factors contributing to NRR changes.
Main Results:
- A decrease in MFR lowered TFR and NRR between 1989-2000.
- An increase in MFR raised TFR and NRR between 2000-2010.
- Marriage postponement consistently reduced fertility levels during both periods.
Conclusions:
- Fertility trends in China are influenced by dynamic shifts in marital fertility and marriage patterns.
- The impact of MFR and marriage postponement varies across age, region, and urban/rural settings.