Gender-based violence in New Delhi, India: forecast based on secondary data analysis

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Public Health
• Sociology

Background:

• Violence against women is a pervasive global issue.
• Cognizable crimes against women represent a significant public health and safety concern in urban settings.
• Understanding crime trends is crucial for developing effective safety interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate and forecast the incidence of cognizable crimes against women in New Delhi, India.
• To analyze crime data from 2009 to 2015 to project future trends.
• To provide data-driven insights into the evolving landscape of women's safety in New Delhi.

Main Methods:

• Statistical analysis and modeling were employed using reported cognizable crime data from 2009-2015.
• Specific crimes analyzed include rape, dowry deaths, and cruelty by husband, among others.
• Forecasting models were used to project crime rates from 2016 to 2020.

Main Results:

• Actual reported cases of crime against women in New Delhi increased from 4,251 in 2009 to 17,104 in 2015.
• Projected cases were estimated to rise from 18,991 in 2016 to 28,663 in 2020.
• A consistent upward trend in crime rates per 100,000 women was observed, with annual increases ranging from 9% to 18%.

Conclusions:

• The study concludes that crime against women in New Delhi is projected to continue its rising trend.
• Women's safety is anticipated to remain a pressing concern in the foreseeable future.
• The findings underscore the need for continued monitoring and intervention strategies to address violence against women.