Drivers of Increasing Emergency Ambulance Demand

Area of Science:

• Emergency medicine
• Health services research
• Public health

Background:

• Emergency department demand factors are well-studied, but drivers of emergency ambulance demand are less understood.
• Ambulance utilization is a critical component of emergency healthcare systems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the factors contributing to the increasing demand for emergency ambulance services.
• To identify patient characteristics associated with rising ambulance utilization.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective observational study of consecutive cases attended by Ambulance Victoria (2008-2015).
• Calculation of incidence rates and adjusted time series regression analyses to identify demand drivers.

Main Results:

• Total demand increased by 29.2% over 8 years, exceeding population growth.
• Significant annual demand growth (1.4%) observed, driven by younger patients and those with mental health issues, alcohol/drug abuse, or high comorbidity (CCI ≥ 4).
• Ambulance use for patients not requiring paramedic intervention grew significantly (6.7% annually).

Conclusions:

• Ambulance demand growth outpaced population increase, indicating a need for better resource allocation.
• A substantial portion of ambulance calls involved patients who did not require medical intervention from paramedics.
• Understanding patient characteristics driving demand is crucial for developing targeted demand management strategies.