[Establishment of Geographic Information System on risk assessment regarding infectious diseases imported to China]

Objectives: To establish a geographic information application system for analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of major infectious diseases in various regions of the world and to assess the risk of importation of those diseases, to China. Methods: We collected and integrated the following information on: 1) outbreaks and areas of epidemics of major infectious diseases in the world from 2000 to 2017, 2) cases of infectious diseases in arriving travelers through active surveillance at international entry-exit ports in mainland China from 2014 to 2016, 3) numbers of annual global international flights and travelers in the country. With the above information, a global space-time distribution database on major infectious diseases was then established, using the technology related to the system. Models regarding technologies on time-space analysis, probabilistic risk assessment and geographic information visualization, were applied to establish a geographic information system on risk assessment of infectious diseases that imported to China. Results: Through integration of information on outbreaks and epidemic areas of 60 major infectious diseases in 220 countries and regions around the world, as well as 42 kinds of infectious diseases identified among the international arrivals in mainland China, a system was then developed. Information on the distribution of major infectious diseases and their potential risks in the worldwide various regions, characteristics of spectrum and disease burden of infectious diseases imported to each province of mainland China were displayed. Thus, risks on importing infectious diseases in each province via air way were able to be evaluated and simulated by the probabilistic risk assessment model, under the information on specific kind of infectious disease, outside China. Conclusion: Geographic Information System on Risk Assessment Regarding Infectious Diseases Imported to China provides basic data for epidemiological reconnaissance and assessment on risks of importing infectious diseases outside China, thus would be helpful for the improvement of strategies on surveillance, prevention and control regarding the importing infectious diseases, in China.