Developing a population wide cost estimating framework and methods for technological intervention enabling ageing in...

Ageing in place is one of the greatest desires of elderly people. Assistive digital technologies could potentially delay the institutionalization of the elderly people and allow them ageing in place. This study develops a population-wide cost estimating framework for adopting digital technologies that can improve the quality of life of elderly people through examining an Australian region.

We developed a five-stage cost estimation framework, which involved progressive forecasting of elderly population and direct cost estimation methods. The forecasting and cost estimation models have been set for a 10-year period because the prediction accuracy from cross-sectional data is better in the short to medium term compared to the long-term. For cost estimation, we categorised the ageing population on the basis of the number of chronic diseases that they have contracted. Costs of assistive technologies were collected from open sources. The model has been tested in the Fitzroy and Central West, a regional area of Queensland in Australia. A stakeholder panel discussion in a workshop format was used to validate the appropriateness of the proposed framework and the study findings.

This study identified eight common chronic diseases with different comorbidity patterns in Australia. We also identified the required assistive technologies to assist patients with chronic diseases. This study estimated that annual per capita cost for technological intervention could range from AUD 4,169 to AUD 7,551 on the basis of different price margins of the technologies.

The approach of categorising the aged cohorts on the basis of the number of chronic diseases helps estimate population-wide costs compared to using single technology intervention costs for a particular chronic disease cohort. The cost estimation framework and the method developed in this study can assist the government to estimate costs for ageing-in-place programs.