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Why So Variable: Can Genetic Variance in Flowering Thresholds Be Maintained by Fluctuating Selection?

Mark Rees, Stephen P Ellner

    The American Naturalist
    |June 29, 2019
    PubMed
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    This study investigates genetic variance in flowering traits of monocarpic plants using advanced models. Fluctuating environments favor genetic variability, resolving previous model discrepancies and highlighting the role of fluctuating selection in maintaining genetic diversity.

    Keywords:
    adaptive dynamicsflowering thresholdgenetic varianceintegral projection modelquantitative genetics

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    Area of Science:

    • Evolutionary Biology
    • Quantitative Genetics
    • Plant Ecology

    Background:

    • Integral projection models (IPMs) combined with adaptive dynamics predicted no maintenance of genetic variance in flowering traits.
    • This contradicts empirical observations in plant populations.
    • Realistic genetic architecture assumptions are needed to resolve this discrepancy.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate the evolution of genetic variance in flowering traits in monocarpic plants.
    • To reconcile conflicting predictions between adaptive dynamics and quantitative genetics models.
    • To explore the role of multilocus quantitative traits and fluctuating selection.

    Main Methods:

    • Integral projection models (IPMs) were integrated with the infinitesimal model of quantitative genetics.
    • Individual-based simulations (IBMs) were employed for comparison.
    • The models were applied to two monocarpic perennials: *Oenothera glazioviana* and *Carlina vulgaris*.

    Main Results:

    • In a constant environment (*Oenothera*), models predicted selection against genetic variance in flowering threshold.
    • In a fluctuating environment (*Carlina*), models predicted a selective advantage for genetic variance.
    • Genetically variable offspring were maintained in the *Carlina vulgaris* model due to environmental variation.

    Conclusions:

    • Realistic genetic architecture assumptions, particularly multilocus traits, are crucial for accurate evolutionary predictions.
    • Fluctuating selection can effectively maintain genetic variation, contrary to some previous theoretical predictions.
    • The study highlights the importance of environmental variability in the evolution and maintenance of genetic diversity in plant populations.