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Sensitivity, specificity and reliability of the POP score vs. APACHE II score as predictors of severe acute biliary

Rubén Escobar-Arellano¹, Edmundo Guraieb-Barragán¹, Antonia Mansanares-Hernández²

¹Departamento de Cirugía, Hospital de Alta Especialidad de Veracruz, Secretaría de Salud. Veracruz, México.

Cirugia Y Cirujanos

|July 3, 2019

Abstract

Background:

The APACHE II score predicts severity of acute pancreatitis, although it requires the collection of a large number of parameters. The paediatric observation priority (POP) score proposed to stratify the risk of severity requires few parameters and the variables are collected in the first 24 h.

Objective:

To compare POP and APACHE II scores as predictors of the severity of pancreatitis on admission.

Methods:

Analytical, observational study in adults of both sexes with acute biliary pancreatitis; APACHE II and POP scores were administered in the first 24 h of admission; We analyzed admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality.

Results:

208 patients were included, 110 women and 98 men, age 42.8 ± 16.6 years, classified as severe pancreatitis 59 (28.4%) patients, requiring ICU 20 (9.6%) of them. The POP score showed 64.1% sensitivity and 88.2% specificity, while for APACHE II score the sensitivity was 66.7% and the specificity 87.6%.

Conclusions:

The POP score is a reliable and easy to apply tool to stratify the risk of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis to provide timely management and decrease complications and mortality rate.

Keywords:

APACHE II Acute pancreatitis Escala POP Gravedad POP score Pancreatitis aguda Severity

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