Predicting Recreational Runners' Marathon Performance Time During Their Training Preparation.

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Exercise Physiology
• Running Performance Analysis

Background:

• Marathon performance prediction is crucial for training optimization.
• Utilizing physiological markers during training can offer insights into future race outcomes.
• Recreational runners often seek accessible methods for performance forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict marathon performance times at various stages of a 16-week training macrocycle.
• To evaluate the utility of speeds derived from ventilatory thresholds and running economy (RE) for prediction.
• To determine which physiological speeds best predict marathon performance throughout preparation.

Main Methods:

• Sixteen recreational runners (8 men, 8 women) underwent physiological assessments.
• Speeds at aerobic threshold (AeT) and anaerobic threshold (AnT), and RE were measured at five time points.
• Hierarchical regression analyses were used to correlate physiological measures with marathon performance.

Main Results:

• Training significantly improved AeT and AnT speeds and running economy over the 16 weeks.
• Speeds at AeT and AnT showed strong correlations with actual marathon performance.
• Speed at AnT was the primary predictor early in training, while AeT speed became more influential later.

Conclusions:

• Assessing speeds at AeT and AnT allows for reasonable marathon performance prediction during training.
• This method avoids the need for maximal testing, offering a practical approach.
• Monitoring these fundamental training speeds can guide training adjustments and performance expectations.