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Stock Returns, weather, and air conditioning.

Jie Hou1, Wendong Shi2, Jingwei Sun3

  • 1International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China.

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Hot weather negatively impacted stock returns before air conditioning was installed at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This effect significantly diminished after the NYSE adopted cooling systems, indicating weather

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Area of Science:

  • Financial economics
  • Economic history
  • Environmental economics

Background:

  • The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) implemented an air-cooling system in 1903.
  • Previous research has not explored the impact of air conditioning on stock market performance.
  • Understanding external factors influencing stock returns is crucial for financial markets.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between local weather, specifically high temperatures, and stock returns.
  • To examine the causal effect of air conditioning on the weather-stock return relationship.
  • To determine if weather impacts stock returns through the NYSE's cooling system.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of historical stock return data (Dow Jones Average) from 1885-1914.
  • Econometric modeling to assess the correlation between temperature, precipitation, and stock returns.
  • Comparative analysis of stock return behavior before and after the NYSE's adoption of air conditioning.

Main Results:

  • A significant negative association between hot weather and Dow Jones Average returns was observed before 1903.
  • This negative correlation was substantially weakened after the NYSE installed its air-cooling system.
  • The adverse effect of high temperatures on stock returns was exacerbated by lower precipitation levels pre-cooling system.

Conclusions:

  • The introduction of air conditioning at the NYSE significantly altered the relationship between weather and stock returns.
  • High temperatures, particularly without mitigation, demonstrably influenced stock market performance historically.
  • Findings suggest that environmental controls can mitigate weather-related financial market anomalies.