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Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions.

Gregory Levitin1,2, Maxim Finkelstein3, Hong-Zhong Huang1

  • 1Center for System Reliability and Safety, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, P. R. China.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Mission aborts can improve system survival by preventing losses when malfunctions occur. This study introduces a model for multi-attempt missions, showing aborting can maximize mission success probability even if system survival isn't critical.

Keywords:
Mission abortmission success probabilitymultiple attemptsrescue proceduresystem loss probability

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Area of Science:

  • Systems Engineering
  • Risk Management
  • Probabilistic Modeling

Background:

  • Real-world systems utilize mission aborts to mitigate risks associated with critical malfunctions.
  • Existing research primarily focuses on single-attempt missions with abort capabilities.
  • Missions requiring high importance and allowing for less stringent time/cost constraints may involve multiple attempts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a probabilistic model for multi-attempt missions incorporating abort strategies.
  • To analyze the trade-off between overall mission success probability (MSP) and system loss probability.
  • To formulate optimization problems for multi-attempt mission scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a probabilistic model for systems undertaking multiple mission attempts.
  • Formulation of optimization problems to balance mission success and system loss.
  • Sensitivity analysis on an illustrative example to evaluate the impact of abort strategies.

Main Results:

  • The study demonstrates that mission aborting can significantly enhance the overall mission success probability (MSP) in multi-attempt scenarios.
  • Analysis reveals that even when system survival is not the primary concern, abort strategies can be optimized to maximize MSP.
  • A detailed sensitivity analysis highlights the nuanced relationship between abort decisions, mission success, and system loss.

Conclusions:

  • Mission abort strategies are crucial for optimizing outcomes in multi-attempt missions, not just for survival but also for maximizing success probability.
  • The proposed probabilistic model provides a framework for decision-making in complex mission scenarios with potential for multiple attempts.
  • Effective utilization of mission aborts can lead to improved mission performance and resource management.