Factors affecting the supply of minority physicians in 2000

There was a substantial increase in the number of black and Hispanic physicians between 1970 and 1985. During the next 15 years, 1985 to 2000, the increase is projected to continue. The factors that will determine the size of the increase and the changes in physician to population ratios include black and Hispanic population increases, medical school costs, availability of student support, minority enrollment in undergraduate schools and the pool of these students who will be applicants to medical school, attrition during medical school, competition from other professions for talented minority students, and the effects of intervention programs such as the Health Careers Opportunity Program. The most likely outcome would seem to be that the increases in black and Hispanic physicians will continue to 2000 at 1985 levels because the data show neither strong positive nor strong negative net influences for the factors examined.