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Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach
Roxann K Stennett-Brown1, Tannecia S Stephenson1, Michael A Taylor1
1Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica, West Indies.
Plos One
|July 11, 2019
Summary
Climate change and heavy rainfall significantly impact Caribbean vulnerability, altering rankings when considered alongside socioeconomic factors. Future projections show shifts in vulnerability order, influenced by climate, demographics, and weighting scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Socioeconomic Vulnerability Assessment
Background:
- Caribbean nations face significant risks from climate change, particularly extreme weather events like heavy rainfall.
- Assessing regional vulnerability requires integrating climatic and socioeconomic factors.
- Existing vulnerability assessments may not fully capture the impact of extreme weather events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the influence of sub-regional climate variations, specifically heavy rainfall, on the vulnerability of twelve Caribbean countries.
- To develop and apply a Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS) incorporating historical and projected climate data with demographic and socioeconomic factors.
- To analyze the impact of climate change scenarios and varying weighting schemes on vulnerability rankings.
Main Methods:
- Creation of a Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS) using historical demographic, socioeconomic, and extreme rainfall data.
- Exploration of four scenarios: rainfall inclusion/exclusion, future climate projections with constant demographics/socioeconomics, and future climate/demographics with constant socioeconomics.
- Sensitivity analysis using different weighting schemes for climate and non-climatic components of the CVS.
Main Results:
- Incorporating historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes significantly alters relative vulnerability rankings compared to socioeconomic and demographic data alone.
- Projected changes in rainfall intensity by the 2030s and 2050s do not drastically change the highest and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographics and socioeconomics are constant.
- Shifts in the order of top-ranked vulnerable locations are observed under different future scenarios and timeframes.
Conclusions:
- Sub-regional climate variations, particularly heavy rainfall, are crucial determinants of Caribbean vulnerability.
- Future shifts in relative vulnerability are contingent upon the interplay of climate and demographic changes, the time horizon, and the assigned weight of climate factors.
- Dynamic weighting of climate and non-climatic factors is essential for accurate vulnerability assessments in the Caribbean.
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