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Response to Comment on "Long-term measles-induced immunomodulation increases overall childhood infectious disease

Michael J Mina1, Bryan T Grenfell2,3, C Jessica E Metcalf2

  • 1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health and Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. mjmina@bwh.harvard.edu.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 13, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Measles immune-amnesia duration estimates are not significantly affected by incidence periodicity. Immune-amnesia is difficult to detect in small populations with high mortality fluctuations.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Immunology

Background:

  • Measles incidence exhibits periodic patterns.
  • Estimates of measles-induced immune-amnesia duration have been debated.
  • Previous studies suggested periodicity artifactually influences immune-amnesia duration estimates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the impact of measles incidence periodicity on immune-amnesia duration estimates.
  • To assess the detectability of immune-amnesia in small, high-mortality populations.

Main Methods:

  • Statistical analysis of measles incidence data.
  • Modeling to differentiate periodicity effects from immunological signals.
  • Simulation of immune-amnesia detection in populations with varying sizes and mortality.

Main Results:

  • Periodicity has a negligible effect on the detected immunological signal for immune-amnesia.
  • The 2- to 3-year duration of measles immune-amnesia is robust to periodicity.
  • Immune-amnesia is largely undetectable in small populations with significant mortality fluctuations.

Conclusions:

  • The duration of measles immune-amnesia is not an artifact of incidence periodicity.
  • Detecting immune-amnesia is challenging in specific population dynamics.
  • Further research may be needed to understand immune-amnesia in diverse epidemiological settings.

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