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Published on: November 3, 2011
Predicting the Effect of Adding a Citizenship Question to the 2020 Census.
J David Brown1, Misty L Heggeness2, Suzanne M Dorinski3
1Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, 4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC, 20233, USA. j.david.brown@census.gov.
Adding a citizenship question to the census may lower self-response rates, particularly for households with noncitizens. This could increase costs and reduce the accuracy of the population count.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Public Policy
Background:
- The self-response rate is critical for census cost and data quality.
- A citizenship question's impact on census participation is a significant concern.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the effect of a citizenship question on census self-response rates.
- To analyze differential response patterns based on citizenship status.
Main Methods:
- Comparing mail response rates between the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2010 census.
- Analyzing response patterns for the citizenship question in the ACS.
- Estimating differential impacts on households with and without noncitizens.
Main Results:
- The citizenship question appears sensitive for administrative noncitizens, who often skip it or misreport citizenship.
- An estimated 8.0 percentage point larger decrease in self-response for households with potential noncitizens compared to all-citizen households.
- A predicted overall 2.2 percentage point drop in self-response for the 2020 census.
Conclusions:
- The inclusion of a citizenship question is likely to decrease census self-response rates.
- This decrease disproportionately affects households with noncitizens, potentially impacting census accuracy and increasing costs.
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