Functional Connectivities Are More Informative Than Anatomical Variables in Diagnostic Classification of Autism

Machine learning techniques have been implemented to reveal brain features that distinguish people with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) from typically developing (TD) peers. However, it remains unknown whether different neuroimaging modalities are equally informative for diagnostic classification. We combined anatomical magnetic resonance imaging (aMRI), diffusion weighted imaging (DWI), and functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI) using conditional random forest (CRF) for supervised learning to compare how informative each modality was in diagnostic classification. In-house data (N = 93) included 47 TD and 46 ASD participants, matched on age, motion, and nonverbal IQ. Four main analyses consistently indicated that fcMRI variables were significantly more informative than anatomical variables from aMRI and DWI. This was found (1) when the top 100 variables from CRF (run separately in each modality) were combined for multimodal CRF; (2) when only 19 top variables reaching >67% accuracy in each modality were combined in multimodal CRF; and (3) when the large number of initial variables (before dimension reduction) potentially biasing comparisons in favor of fcMRI was reduced using a less granular region of interest scheme. Consistent superiority of fcMRI was even found (4) when 100 variables per modality were randomly selected, removing any such potential bias. Greater informative value of functional than anatomical modalities may relate to the nature of fcMRI data, reflecting more closely behavioral condition, which is also the basis of diagnosis, whereas brain anatomy may be more reflective of neurodevelopmental history.