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Temporal Limits on What Engineers Can Plan.

Michael Davis1

  • 1Humanities Department, Center for the Study of Ethics in the Professions, Illinois Institute of Technology, 5300 South Shore Drive #57, Chicago, IL, 60616, USA. davism@iit.edu.

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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Engineers can plan for the future only as far as they can reasonably expect other engineers to exist. This limits effective engineering planning to a few generations, despite examples like long-term nuclear waste storage.

Keywords:
DisciplineEngineerGreat PyramidPlanningYucca Mountain

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Area of Science:

  • Engineering Ethics
  • Philosophy of Technology
  • Long-term Planning

Background:

  • Engineers often undertake projects requiring safety assurances over vast timescales, such as the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository (10,000 to 1,000,000 years).
  • The success of engineering planning, often exceeding ordinary life's gambles, raises questions about its philosophical underpinnings and limits.

Discussion:

  • This analysis questions the feasibility of engineers planning for millennia or longer.
  • It explores the inherent limitations of predictive capabilities in long-term engineering endeavors.
  • The abstract posits that the success of engineering planning is contingent on the continuity of the engineering profession itself.

Key Insights:

  • Engineering planning is fundamentally limited by the foreseeable presence of future engineers.
  • The effective planning horizon for engineers is restricted to a maximum of a few generations.
  • The 'nth generation' problem highlights the diminishing certainty in long-term engineering commitments.

Outlook:

  • Future research could explore methodologies for enhancing intergenerational knowledge transfer in engineering.
  • Investigating ethical frameworks for engineering responsibility across extended temporal scales is crucial.
  • Developing adaptive designs that accommodate future uncertainties may extend practical engineering planning horizons.