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Related Concept Videos

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Prediction Intervals

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The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
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Confidence Intervals01:21

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An unbiased point estimate is often insufficient to predict a population estimate, such as population mean or population proportion. In this scenario, a confidence interval is used. A confidence interval is an estimate similar to a  sample proportion. However, unlike the point estimate which is a single value, the confidence interval  contains a range of values. These values have lower and upper limits, known as confidence limits, and can be designated as L1 and L2, respectively.
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Network covalent solids contain a three-dimensional network of covalently bonded atoms as found in the crystal structures of nonmetals like diamond, graphite, silicon, and some covalent compounds, such as silicon dioxide (sand) and silicon carbide (carborundum, the abrasive on sandpaper). Many minerals have networks of covalent bonds.
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Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

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The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
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Interpretation of Confidence Intervals01:19

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A confidence interval is a better estimate of the population than a point estimate, as it uses a range of values from a sample instead of a single value.
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Efficient training of interval Neural Networks for imprecise training data.

Jonathan Sadeghi1, Marco de Angelis1, Edoardo Patelli1

  • 1Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, Chadwick Building, University of Liverpool, Peach Street, Liverpool L69 7ZF, United Kingdom.

Neural Networks : the Official Journal of the International Neural Network Society
|August 2, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a novel method for training Neural Networks (NNs) to predict intervals and quantify uncertainty. The approach offers robust, computationally efficient uncertainty quantification for large datasets, handling data uncertainty and adversarial examples effectively.

Keywords:
Imprecise probabilityInterval Predictor ModelsMachine learningNeural NetworksUncertainty quantification

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Area of Science:

  • Computer Science
  • Machine Learning
  • Artificial Intelligence

Background:

  • Quantifying uncertainty in Neural Networks (NNs) is crucial for reliable decision-making.
  • Existing methods for uncertainty quantification can be computationally intensive or lack robustness.
  • Handling epistemic uncertainty, especially in large datasets, remains a significant challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a robust and computationally feasible method for training NNs with interval predictions.
  • To quantify the uncertainty associated with NN predictions.
  • To address epistemic uncertainty in large datasets.

Main Methods:

  • A novel backpropagation algorithm for NNs with interval predictions.
  • Minimizing the maximum batch error at each step for numerical stability.
  • Utilizing the non-convex Scenario approach for chance-constrained optimization post-training.

Main Results:

  • The proposed method effectively trains NNs for interval predictions and uncertainty quantification.
  • The approach accommodates uncertainty in training data, including adversarial examples.
  • Computational complexity scales favorably with O(M⋅Niter), independent of dataset size, unlike other Interval Predictor Model methods.

Conclusions:

  • This work presents the first computationally feasible approach for convex set-based epistemic uncertainty in large datasets.
  • The method provides reliable predictions and avoids complex penalty function methods.
  • The proposed technique enhances the trustworthiness and applicability of NNs in critical domains.