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Consistent multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.

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This study reconstructs global temperatures over 2,000 years using paleoclimate data. Volcanic aerosols were the main driver of pre-industrial temperature changes, with recent warming being unusual.

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Climate Science
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • Surface temperature changes over decades can be driven by natural or human factors, or internal climate variability.
  • Differentiating these drivers is crucial for understanding climate sensitivity and unforced variability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconstruct 2,000-year global mean temperature variations.
  • To distinguish between natural, anthropogenic, and unforced climate variability.
  • To assess the drivers of pre-industrial temperature fluctuations.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized seven distinct statistical methods for temperature reconstruction.
  • Drew upon a global compilation of paleoclimate records sensitive to temperature.
  • Compared reconstructions with fully forced Community Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) millennial simulations.

Main Results:

  • Reconstructions revealed synchronous multi-decadal temperature fluctuations.
  • These fluctuations were coherent with each other and with CMIP5 simulations.
  • Volcanic aerosol forcing was identified as the primary driver of pre-industrial multi-decadal variability (1300-1800 CE).
  • Reconstructions and simulations showed agreement on the amplitude of unforced multi-decadal variability.
  • The most significant warming trends occurred in the latter half of the 20th century.

Conclusions:

  • Reconstructions and model simulations increase confidence in climate change projections.
  • The study highlights the unusual nature of recent decades' warming.
  • Findings aid in attributing past climate variations and improving future climate predictions.