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Assessing microbial risk through event-based pathogen loading and hydrodynamic modelling.

Samira Tolouei1, Ray Dewey2, William J Snodgrass3

  • 1Canada Research Chair in Source Water Protection, Polytechnique Montréal, Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering Department, P.O. Box 6079, Station Centre-Ville, Montréal H3C 3A7, Québec, Canada; NSERC Industrial Chair on Drinking Water, Polytechnique Montréal, Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering Department, P.O. Box 6079, Station Centre-Ville, Montréal H3C 3A7, Québec, Canada.

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Summary

Wet weather significantly increases microbial contamination in drinking water sources, elevating risks from Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and E. coli. Water resource recovery facilities are key sources, highlighting the need for better data on by-pass events.

Keywords:
CryptosporidiumDischarge-based QMRAE. coliHydrodynamic modellingQuantitative microbial risk assessmentSource water protection

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental microbiology
  • Water quality assessment
  • Risk assessment

Background:

  • Drinking water safety is paramount, with microbial contamination posing a significant public health risk.
  • Variability in contaminant loading from various sources impacts the effectiveness of water treatment.
  • Understanding microbial fate and transport is crucial for safeguarding drinking water intakes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the variability of microbial risk in drinking water under different contamination loading scenarios.
  • To identify dominant sources of Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and Escherichia coli (E. coli) contamination.
  • To evaluate the impact of wet versus dry weather conditions on microbial concentrations and associated risks.

Main Methods:

  • A probabilistic-deterministic approach was used to estimate microbial loadings from fecal sources.
  • A 3D hydrodynamic model simulated the fate and transport of microbes in Lake Ontario.
  • Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was applied to assess drinking water risks.

Main Results:

  • Water resource recovery facilities were identified as the primary source of Giardia, while rivers were more significant for Cryptosporidium.
  • Microbial concentrations at the drinking water intake were significantly higher during wet weather conditions.
  • Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment indicated over a one-order-of-magnitude higher risk during wet weather compared to dry weather.

Conclusions:

  • Wet weather conditions substantially increase microbial risk in drinking water supplies.
  • Accurate loading data from sources like water resource recovery facility by-passes are critical for comprehensive risk assessment.
  • Further research is needed on Cryptosporidium loading during by-pass events to fully characterize risks.