Flood risk management in Sint Maarten - A coupled agent-based and flood modelling method

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Disaster Management

Background:

• Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face significant disaster risks, necessitating comprehensive risk reduction strategies.
• Effective measures must integrate physical hazard assessment with community exposure and vulnerability analysis.
• Flood risk management is a critical concern for Caribbean islands like Sint Maarten.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the effectiveness of different flood risk management policies in Sint Maarten.
• To model the impact of agent behavior and policy interventions on flood risk.
• To provide data-driven insights for policymakers in disaster risk reduction.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a coupled agent-based model (ABM) and flood model simulation approach.
• ABM simulated human behavior regarding urban development and policy adoption.
• Flood model simulated coastal and pluvial flooding, incorporating agent-driven changes.

Main Results:

• Simulations revealed high population density in low-lying areas, increasing exposure and vulnerability.
• Implementing structural hazard reduction measures (e.g., drainage improvements, dykes) showed the greatest impact on reducing flooded houses.
• The Building and Housing Ordinance was identified as crucial for reducing overall household vulnerability.

Conclusions:

• Structural hazard reduction measures are paramount for mitigating flood risk in Sint Maarten.
• Policy interventions, particularly the Building and Housing Ordinance, are vital for enhancing community resilience.
• Coupled modeling provides valuable insights for informing effective disaster risk reduction policies in SIDS.