Predicting Patients at Risk of 30-Day Unplanned Hospital Readmission

We developed a machine learning model to predict 30-day readmissions using the model types; XGBoost, Random Forests and Adaboost with decision stumps as a base learner with different feature combinations and preprocessing procedures. The proposed model achieved the F1-score (0.386 ± 0.006), sensitivity (0.598 ± 0.013), positive predictive value (PPV) (0.285 ± 0.004) and negative predictive value (NPV) (0.932 ± 0.002). When compared with LACE and PARR (NZ) models, the proposed model achieved better F1-score by 12.5% compared to LACE and 22.9% compared to PARR (NZ). The mean sensitivity of the proposed model was 6.0% higher than LACE and 42.4% higher than PARR (NZ). The mean PPV was 15.9% and 13.5% higher than LACE and PARR (NZ) respectively.