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The 'paradox' of converging evidence
Clintin P Davis-Stober1, Michel Regenwetter2
1Department of Psychological Sciences.
Psychological Review
|August 16, 2019
Summary
Psychological theories may not describe any single individual, even with replicated findings. Accounting for individual differences is crucial for understanding a theory's true scope and applicability.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Social Psychology
- Psychological Theory
Background:
- Psychological theories are often evaluated based on individual predictions.
- Replicated findings from separate studies do not guarantee a theory describes any single individual.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the implications of viewing psychological theories as a conjunction of all their predictions.
- To analyze how effect sizes and individual differences impact a theory's scope.
Main Methods:
- Examining the proportion of a population that satisfies a theory's joint predictions.
- Analyzing the relationship between effect sizes, individual differences, and theoretical scope.
- Illustrating with four examples from cognitive and social psychology.
Main Results:
- Even well-replicated effects may fail to describe any single person due to individual differences.
- Small effect sizes significantly limit the scope of psychological theories.
- Additional studies can narrow, rather than strengthen, a theory's applicability.
Conclusions:
- The scope of psychological theories is often overestimated when individual differences are ignored.
- Theories can be strengthened by explicitly accounting for heterogeneity.
- Casting theories to apply universally without exception can overcome limitations.
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