A subcutaneous insulin pharmacokinetic model for insulin Detemir

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is rapidly increasing in incidence and has significant social and economic costs. Given the increasing cost of complications, even relatively short delays in the onset of T2D can significantly reduce long-term complications and costs. Equally, recent studies have shown the onset of T2D can be delayed by use of long-acting insulin, despite the risk and concomitant low adherence. Thus, there is a strong potential motivation to develop models of long-acting insulin analogues to enable safe, effective use in model-based dosing systems. In particular, there are no current models of long-acting insulin Detemir and its unique action for model-based control. The objective of this work is to develop a first model of insulin Detemir and its unique action, and validate it against existing data in the literature.

This study develops a detailed compartment model for insulin Detemir. Model specific parameters are identified using data from a range of published clinical studies on the pharmacokinetic of insulin Detemir. Model validity and robustness are assessed by identifying the model for each study and using average identified parameters over several dose sizes and study cohorts. Comparisons to peak concentration, time of peak concentration and overall error versus measured plasma concentrations are used to assess model accuracy and validity.

Almost all studies and cohorts fit literature data to within one standard deviation of error, even when using averaged identified model parameters. However, there appears to be a noticeable dose dependent dynamic not included in this first model, nor reported in the literature studies.

A first model of insulin Detemir including its unique albumin binding kinetics is derived and provisionally validated against clinical pharmacokinetic data. The pharmacokinetic curves are suitable for model-based control and general enough for use. While there are limitations in the studies used for validation that prevent a more complete understanding, the results provide an effective first model and justify the design and implementation of further, more precise human trials.