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A High-Resolution National-Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model.

Alan D Snow1, Scott D Christensen2, Nathan R Swain2

  • 1Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory US Army Engineer Research and Development Center 3909 Halls Ferry Rd Vicksburg MS 39180.

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|August 20, 2019
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a new method for high-resolution, 15-day streamflow forecasting using ensemble predictions. This advance aims to improve flood warnings for millions by integrating detailed data into national forecasting systems.

Keywords:
CI‐WATERCondorPyECMWFGloFASHTCondorNFIERAPIDTethys Platformflood predictionforecaststreamflow prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Environmental Science
  • Computer Science

Background:

  • Existing large-scale streamflow prediction systems operate at coarse resolutions, limiting their effectiveness for localized flood warnings.
  • Millions of people could benefit from advanced flood prediction systems capable of several-day advance warnings.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts to produce high-resolution, 15-day streamflow predictions.
  • To create approximate recurrence intervals and warning points for exceeding streamflow thresholds.
  • To enhance national flood forecasting capabilities.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) to route global runoff ensemble forecasts and historical runoff from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model.
  • Employed distributed computing on computer clusters to process large watersheds with high-density stream networks.
  • Developed the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application for visualizing results at regional and reach levels.

Main Results:

  • Generated high spatial resolution 15-day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points.
  • Enabled processing of large watersheds and high-density stream networks through distributed computation.
  • Integrated ensemble predictions for nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset.

Conclusions:

  • The developed method and tool can significantly enhance national flood forecasting ability.
  • High-resolution streamflow predictions and warning points can be generated effectively for large-scale applications.
  • The Streamflow Prediction Tool serves as a base for improved hydrologic forecasting services.