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Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty
C Ahrends1, F Bravo2, M L Kringelbach3,4
1Center for Music in the Brain, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University & The Royal Academy of Music Aarhus/Aalborg, Aarhus, Denmark. christine.ahrends@clin.au.dk.
Scientific Reports
|August 23, 2019
Summary
People avoid ambiguity due to caution, not pessimism. This study found that ambiguity aversion in decision-making is not driven by expecting the worst, but rather by general cautiousness.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive psychology
- Decision science
- Neuroeconomics
Background:
- Ambiguity aversion is a common human trait, often linked to pessimistic beliefs about potential negative outcomes.
- Understanding the psychological drivers of ambiguity aversion is crucial for decision-making models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether pessimistic prior beliefs explain ambiguity aversion.
- To differentiate between the roles of outcome expectation and general caution in ambiguity aversion.
Main Methods:
- Utilized two linked behavioral tasks (risk-taking and beliefs tasks) with 78 healthy participants.
- Assessed participants' decisions under risk and ambiguity, and their subjective beliefs about outcomes.
Main Results:
- Participants' beliefs in ambiguity conditions were not overly pessimistic, aligning closer to optimal decision-making than risk conditions.
- Individual differences in pessimism did not correlate with ambiguity aversion.
- Pessimism influenced outcome expectancy but not the aversion to ambiguity itself.
Conclusions:
- Ambiguity aversion appears to stem from general caution rather than the expectation of negative outcomes.
- Decision-making under ambiguity may involve different psychological mechanisms than previously assumed, emphasizing caution over specific negative outcome predictions.
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