Manual and Automated Procedures for Compiling a Very Large Sample of Centenarian Pedigrees

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Genetics
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Increasing lifespans, particularly among baby boomers, raise concerns about longevity risk for insurance and entitlement programs.
• Current actuarial methods lack precision in identifying individuals at high risk for extreme old age (90+ or 100+).
• Strong familial aggregation of extreme longevity suggests a genetic component influencing survival to advanced ages.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and describe methods for constructing large-scale pedigrees, focusing on families with centenarians.
• To create an algorithm utilizing familial longevity data to predict an individual's probability of reaching extreme old age.
• To support manual pedigree curation with newly developed software utilizing internet resources.

Main Methods:

• Hand-curation of centenarian pedigrees to establish a gold standard dataset.
• Development of software for automated pedigree construction using online resources.
• Integration of familial longevity information into a predictive algorithm.

Main Results:

• Successful compilation of centenarian pedigrees through manual curation.
• Development of software that aids in the automated and semi-automated construction of pedigrees.
• Establishment of a foundation for an algorithm to assess individual longevity risk based on family history.

Conclusions:

• Familial longevity is a significant factor in predicting survival to extreme old age.
• Automated and semi-automated pedigree construction methods can facilitate the creation of large datasets for longevity research.
• These methods provide a novel approach to quantifying longevity risk beyond traditional actuarial predictions.