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Evaluating Life Expectancy Evaluations.

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The A-to-E ratio for life expectancy estimates has flaws. New metrics based on the difference in life expectancies offer a more reliable assessment of underwriting quality for life settlements.

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Area of Science:

  • Finance
  • Actuarial Science
  • Insurance

Background:

  • Life expectancy estimates are crucial for life settlement investors.
  • The A-to-E ratio (Actual to Expected deaths) is the standard metric for assessing estimate quality.
  • Existing metrics have limitations in accurately reflecting underwriting performance.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify critical limitations of the A-to-E ratio in life expectancy estimation.
  • To propose novel metrics for evaluating underwriting quality in life settlements.
  • To assess the underwriting quality of a major U.S. life expectancy provider using new methods.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of the A-to-E ratio's statistical properties, including short-term uncertainty and long-term convergence.
  • Development of new metrics based on the difference in temporary life expectancies.
  • Application of the new methodology to a dataset from a leading U.S. life expectancy provider.

Main Results:

  • The A-to-E ratio is susceptible to estimation uncertainty in smaller portfolios.
  • The A-to-E ratio converges to 100% over time, masking systematic underwriting bias.
  • The newly proposed metrics provide a more robust evaluation of underwriting accuracy.

Conclusions:

  • The A-to-E ratio is an inadequate measure for assessing long-term underwriting quality in life settlements.
  • New metrics based on life expectancy differences offer a superior alternative for evaluating life expectancy providers.
  • The study provides a framework for more accurate assessment of investment risk in life settlements.