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Updated: Jan 20, 2026

Measuring Delay Discounting in Humans Using an Adjusting Amount Task

Measuring Delay Discounting in Humans Using an Adjusting Amount Task

Published on: January 9, 2016

A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates.

Marcus C Sarofim¹, Michael R Giordano²

¹Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20001, USA.

Earth System Dynamics : ESD

|August 29, 2019

Summary

The 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) metric aligns with a 3.3% discount rate for climate damages. Higher discount rates shorten the equivalent GWP timescale, impacting climate policy decisions.

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Environmental Economics
Atmospheric Chemistry

Background:

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is the standard metric for comparing greenhouse gas (GHG) climate impacts.
The 100-year GWP metric has faced criticism for its assumptions regarding radiative forcing, constant future concentrations, and lack of discounting.
Evaluating the choice of time horizon in climate metrics is crucial for accurate impact assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantitatively evaluate the choice of time horizon in climate metrics.
To determine an equivalent GWP timescale based on discounted damages from methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) pulses.
To assess the consistency of the 100-year GWP with various discount rates used in climate impact analyses.

Main Methods:

Calculating an equivalent Global Warming Potential (GWP) timescale.
Utilizing discounted damages from methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions pulses.
Performing sensitivity analyses across a range of discount rates (2.7% to 4.1%).

Main Results:

A 100-year GWP timescale is consistent with a discount rate of 3.3%.
The interquartile range for this discount rate is 2.7% to 4.1%.
Increasing discount rates lead to shorter equivalent GWP timescales.

Conclusions:

The 100-year GWP metric is broadly consistent with commonly used discount rates in climate impact studies.
The choice of discount rate significantly influences the effective timescale of climate metrics.
Further research should consider economic and political implications alongside climate impact equivalencies for metric implementation.