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Updated: Jan 20, 2026
Holter Monitor: 24-Hour Monitoring
Published on: June 19, 2025
Risk stratification for cardiac mortality using electrocardiographic markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings: the
Toshio Kinoshita1, Kenichi Hashimoto2, Koichiro Yoshioka3
1Toho University, Tokyo, Japan.
Insights
Nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) on 24-hour ECG are valuable predictors of mortality and serious arrhythmias in patients with structural heart disease (SHD). Combined assessment of these electrocardiographic markers improves predictive accuracy for adverse cardiac events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Electrophysiology
- Preventive Medicine
Background:
- Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the current standard for assessing cardiac mortality risk.
- Limited information exists on electrocardiographic (ECG) markers for predicting adverse outcomes in patients with structural heart disease (SHD).
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the efficacy of specific ECG markers in predicting mortality and serious arrhythmias in patients with SHD.
- To identify novel ECG-based predictors that complement existing risk stratification methods like LVEF.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from 719 patients with SHD in the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES).
- Assessment of 24-hour Holter ECG recordings for nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT).
- Primary endpoint: all-cause mortality; Secondary endpoint: fatal arrhythmic events.
Main Results:
- During a mean follow-up of 21 months, 5.4% of patients experienced all-cause mortality, with 82% due to cardiac causes.
- Multivariate analysis revealed that documented NSVT (HR=2.46) and abnormal HRT (HR=2.40) were significant predictors of mortality, independent of age and LVEF.
- Both NSVT and HRT demonstrated significant predictive value for fatal arrhythmic events, with combined assessment enhancing predictive accuracy.
Conclusions:
- Documented NSVT and abnormal HRT identified via 24-hour Holter ECG are recommended for predicting serious future events in SHD patients.
- The combined assessment of these ECG markers offers improved predictive accuracy for adverse cardiac outcomes.
- These ECG markers provide valuable insights for risk stratification beyond traditional measures like LVEF.
Background:
Recent guidelines have stated that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. However, little information is present regarding electrocardiographic (ECG) markers. This study aimed to assess ECG markers for predicting mortality or serious arrhythmia in patients with structural heart disease (SHD).
Methods:
In total, 1829 patients were enrolled into the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES study). In this study, we analyzed data of 719 patients (569 men, age 64 ± 13 years) with SHD including mainly ischemic heart disease (65.8%). As ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT) were assessed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was fatal arrhythmic events.
Results:
During a mean follow-up of 21 ± 11 months, all-cause mortality was eventually observed in 39 patients (5.4%). Among those patients, 32 patients (82%) suffered from cardiac causes such as heart failure and arrhythmia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age and LVEF, documented NSVT [hazard ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-5.18, p = 0.02] and abnormal HRT (hazard ratio = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.16-4.93, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. These two ECG markers also had significant predictive values with the secondary endpoint. The combined assessment of two ECG markers improved predictive accuracy.
Conclusion:
This study demonstrated that combined assessment of documented NSVT and abnormal HRT based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings are recommended for predicting future serious events in this population.
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