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Updated: Jan 20, 2026
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Extinction: Diversity and Extinction during the Paleogene Epoch - Procedure
2.7K
Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals
Christielly Mendonça Borges1, Levi Carina Terribile2, Guilherme de Oliveira3
1Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
Plos One
|September 6, 2019
Summary
Past climate change significantly impacted mammal biodiversity, with historical range contractions predicting current extinction risks. This highlights the importance of conserving species facing climate change.
Area of Science:
- Biodiversity conservation
- Climate change impacts
- Mammalian ecology
Background:
- Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity.
- Extant mammals have previously adapted to Quaternary climate fluctuations.
- Understanding past responses to climate change can inform current conservation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze how past climate change predicts current extinction risks for mammals.
- To assess the role of Quaternary range dynamics in current species vulnerability.
- To evaluate extinction risk predictors at global and biogeographical scales.
Main Methods:
- Modeled potential distributions of terrestrial mammals during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and present-day.
- Utilized IUCN Red List data for current extinction risk assessments.
- Employed General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to link range variation (ΔRange) and suitability (ΔSuitability) to extinction risk.
Main Results:
- Past climate change disproportionately reduced the geographic range and climatic suitability of threatened mammals.
- Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explained approximately 40% of current mammal extinction risk, especially for small-bodied species.
- Species groups with significant Quaternary range contractions exhibit higher proportions of threatened species today.
Conclusions:
- Historical range contractions are crucial predictors of current and future extinction risk.
- Past climate change impacts on species' ranges offer insights into vulnerability under ongoing climate change.
- Conservation efforts must consider historical climate dynamics to effectively protect biodiversity.
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