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Rhesus macaques use probabilities to predict future events.

Francesca De Petrillo1,2, Alexandra G Rosati1,3

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, 530 Church St, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA.

Evolution and Human Behavior : Official Journal of the Human Behavior and Evolution Society
|September 13, 2019
PubMed
Summary

Rhesus macaques demonstrate intuitive statistical reasoning, using probability to predict outcomes in novel situations. This suggests shared cognitive abilities with humans and offers insights into the evolution of logical thought.

Keywords:
intuitive statisticslogical inferencesnon-human primatesprobabilistic reasoning

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Science
  • Comparative Psychology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Humans possess an intuitive statistical sense for predicting uncertain events, a skill foundational to reasoning.
  • Preverbal infants and some non-human primates exhibit rudimentary statistical inference abilities.
  • Understanding the extent of these abilities in animals is key to tracing the evolution of reasoning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if rhesus macaques can infer probable outcomes from a random lottery without prior experience.
  • To explore the evolutionary origins of intuitive statistical reasoning in primates.
  • To determine if primates utilize probability information for predictive inference.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a novel expectancy-violation looking time task adapted from infant studies.
  • Tested rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) on their ability to infer outcomes from a probabilistic 'lottery' machine.
  • Controlled for visual mismatch by comparing lottery outcomes to experimenter-presented items.

Main Results:

  • Monkeys looked longer at unexpected outcomes from the lottery, indicating violated expectations.
  • Initial trials confirmed monkeys did not show differential looking without prior population knowledge.
  • The effect was dependent on the probabilistic relationship, not mere visual novelty.

Conclusions:

  • Rhesus monkeys spontaneously use probability information to reason about likely outcomes.
  • This study provides the first evidence of primates inferring probabilistic outcomes without direct experience.
  • Comparative research in non-human primates illuminates the evolutionary trajectory of logical reasoning capacities.