Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

This study describes the association between explicit expectations to divorce and subsequent first union formation over the transition to adulthood (ages 18-28).

Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation over the transition to adulthood.

Data from the 2005-2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2052) were used to estimate the association between expectations to divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models.

As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women.

Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.