Will I Stay Married? Exploring Predictors of Expectations to Divorce in Unmarried Young Adults

Expectations that one may eventually divorce may predict behavior in young adulthood and beyond, but studies that have looked at individuals' assessments of their divorce likelihood have been limited. Guided by the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation, we tested five categories of potential predictors of divorce expectations in a sample of 1,610 unmarried young adults from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood study. Predictors were tested separately by gender and partnership status. Results suggested that some predictors mattered more for some groups than others, such as employment for single men, or certainty of marriage for partnered women. Consistent with prior research, caregiver divorce was significantly associated with expectations to divorce, but was only one of many factors found to predict these expectations. Socioeconomic factors and experiences and expectations of other relationships consistently predicted expectations. Expectations to divorce are multifaceted and complex.