The natural selection of conservative science

Area of Science:

• Social epistemology
• Philosophy of science

Background:

• High-risk, high-reward science is considered vital for scientific advancement.
• A trend towards 'normal science' (conservative, incremental research) is observed in some fields.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore how the dynamics of scientific research group formation, growth, and dissolution might foster conservatism.
• To investigate the selective pressures within scientific communities that may disfavor high-risk research.

Main Methods:

• Utilizes a population selection paradigm developed by Smaldino and McElreath (2016) to model scientific communities.
• Analyzes the inherent characteristics of research group lifecycles and their impact on scientific strategy.

Main Results:

• The community selection process can, counter-intuitively, promote high-risk, high-reward science.
• However, the difficulty in replicating risky findings hinders the establishment of successful research lineages.
• Conservative science, being more repeatable, allows for easier knowledge transfer and lineage continuation.

Conclusions:

• Scientific community structures may inherently select against high-risk, high-reward projects due to the challenge of replication.
• Incentives shaping scientific communities involve both individual career choices and the selective processes governing research group formation.
• Understanding these dual processes is crucial for comprehending how community dynamics influence the balance between conservative and risky scientific endeavors.