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Studying existential risks from emerging technologies requires scientific creativity. Shifting scientific incentives can foster this creativity, leading to a

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Risk Analysis
  • Sociology of Science

Background:

  • Emerging technologies pose complex existential risks.
  • Current scientific study of these risks faces challenges due to a lack of creativity.
  • Existing scientific communities may not be adequately structured to address these novel threats.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose an account of scientific creativity applicable to scientific communities.
  • To analyze contemporary scientific incentives and their impact on creativity.
  • To argue for the necessity of creativity in the science of existential risk and suggest ways to foster it.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of scientific creativity.
  • Examination of incentive structures within contemporary science.
  • Development of the concept of 'well-adapted' science.

Main Results:

  • Contemporary science often disincentivizes the specific type of creativity needed for existential risk research.
  • A successful science of existential risk must be creative in the proposed sense.
  • The concept of 'well-adapted' science offers a framework for aligning incentives with epistemic needs.

Conclusions:

  • To advance the study of existential risks, scientific incentives must be reformed to encourage creativity.
  • Philosophical approaches to the social structure of science can benefit from this analysis.
  • Tailoring incentive structures to the specific epistemic situation is crucial for 'well-adapted' science.