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California air resources board forest carbon protocol invalidates offsets
Bruno D V Marino1, Martina Mincheva2, Aaron Doucett3
1Executive Management, Planetary Emissions Management Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.
Peerj
|October 4, 2019
Summary
Commercial forest carbon protocols, like CARB-CAR, are scientifically invalid. Direct measurements (NEE) show CARB-CAR overcredits carbon sequestration, risking global climate agreements.
Area of Science:
- Forestry
- Climate Science
- Environmental Accounting
Background:
- Commercial forest carbon offset protocols are globally used but lack scientific validation.
- Protocols like CARB-CAR claim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through forest carbon sequestration.
- Directly measured forest carbon sequestration data (NEE) provides an independent benchmark.
Purpose of the Study:
- To scientifically validate commercial forest carbon protocols, specifically CARB-CAR.
- To compare CARB-CAR's methodology with directly measured Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE).
- To assess the reliability of CARB-CAR forest carbon offsets.
Main Methods:
- Reviewed and analyzed CARB-CAR forest carbon protocols.
- Compared CARB-CAR accounting with a global database of directly measured Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE).
- Tested the hypothesis that CARB-CAR data falls within global NEE population values.
Main Results:
- CARB-CAR protocol offsets were invalidated by direct NEE measurements.
- CARB-CAR population data significantly differs from NEE population values.
- CARB-CAR protocols exhibit overcrediting bias and exceed invalidation limits.
Conclusions:
- CARB-CAR and related forest carbon protocols are scientifically flawed.
- Exclusion of soil and ecosystem respiration leads to invalid carbon accounting.
- There is a high risk of protocol invalidation for REDD+ and the Paris Agreement.

