Geographic distribution and risk of upper urothelial carcinomas in Croatia, 2001-2011

Strong associations exist between Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN) and upper urothelial carcinomas (UUCs). However, the common etiology between the two remains unclear and there are no studies to date that visualize UUC risks in Croatia. In Croatia, 14 villages in the southwestern part of Brod-Posavina County are considered endemic for BEN. The aim of this ecological study is to map cancer risks and describe the case distribution of UUCs in Croatia at the county level during 2001-2011.

A total of 608 incident cases from the Croatian National Cancer Registry were identified. Indirect standardization was employed to compute standardized incidence ratios (SIRs).

Counties with SIRs greater than 1 were concentrated around the agricultural region of Slavonia and the coastal region of Dalmatia. However, only Brod-Posavina County and Vukovar-Srijem County had a statistically significant risk of UUC development, where there were 390 and 210% more UUC cases observed than expected, respectively. Only unique to Brod-Posavina County, females were at higher risk (SIR 4.96; 95% CI 3.59-6.34) of developing UUCs than males (SIR 3.03; 95% CI 2.04-4.01) when compared to their Croatian counterparts. Although Brod-Posavina County only made up 3.7% of the total Croatian population (as of 2011), it had the highest frequency of incident UUC cases after the capital City of Zagreb. No elevated cancer risks were noted in the City of Zagreb, even after stratifying by sex.

Our findings suggest that Brod-Posavina County had the highest cancer risk for UUCs, especially among females, when compared to Croatia as a whole during 2001-2011. Given that a majority of BEN patients develop associated UUCs, concurrent screening programs for UUCs and BEN should be considered not only in endemic areas of BEN but also the surrounding rural areas and amongst at-risk groups such as those undergoing hemodialysis, who frequently develop UUCs, to help clarify BEN-UUC associations by identifying common risk factors while standardizing disease estimates across endemic regions for BEN.