Managing Uncertainty in Runoff Estimation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater...

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Stormwater Calculator (NSWC) simplifies the task of estimating runoff through a straightforward simulation process based on the EPA Stormwater Management Model. The NSWC accesses localized climate and soil hydrology data, and options to experiment with low-impact development (LID) features for parcels up to 5 ha in size. We discuss how the NSWC treats the urban hydrologic cycle and focus on the estimation uncertainty in soil hydrology and its impact on runoff simulation by comparing field-measured soil hydrologic data from 12 cities to corresponding NSWC estimates in three case studies. The default NSWC hydraulic conductivity is 10.1 mm/h, which underestimates conductivity measurements for New Orleans, Louisiana (95 ± 27 mm/h) and overestimates that for Omaha, Nebraska (3.0 ± 1.0 mm/h). Across all cities, the NSWC prediction, on average, underestimated hydraulic conductivity by 10.5 mm/h compared to corresponding measured values. In evaluating how LID interact with soil hydrology and runoff response, we found direct hydrologic interaction with pre-existing soil shows high sensitivity in runoff prediction, whereas LID isolated from soils show less impact. Simulations with LID on higher permeability soils indicate that nearly all of pre-LID runoff is treated; while features interacting with less-permeable soils treat only 50%. We highlight the NSWC as a screening-level tool for site runoff dynamics and its suitability in stormwater management.