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How does drought impact burned area in Mediterranean vegetation communities?
A Cardil1, C Vega-García2, D Ascoli3
1Tecnosylva Parque Tecnológico de León, 24009 León, Spain; Department of Crops and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Av. Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida, Spain.
The Science of the Total Environment
|October 23, 2019
Summary
Extreme drought events significantly increase wildfire risk in the Mediterranean, particularly in late spring and autumn. Understanding drought
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Forestry
Background:
- Drought and water stress impact fuel moisture and flammability.
- Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the Mediterranean.
- This necessitates understanding drought's influence on wildfire incidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze how drought duration, magnitude, and temporal distribution influence wildfire burned area.
- To explore the mediating role of vegetation communities (VCs) in the drought-fire relationship.
- To investigate the joint influence of drought and VCs on burned area.
Main Methods:
- Utilized weekly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data.
- Employed historical fire perimeters to assess burned area.
- Applied multivariate factor analysis (multi-group Principal Component Analysis) and non-parametric mixed regression models (GAMM).
Main Results:
- Detected a significant influence of drought events (negative SPEI) on burned area.
- Observed differences in drought's impact based on seasonal distribution and vegetation communities.
- Drought significantly explained burned area in late spring and autumn.
Conclusions:
- Drought plays a major role in wildfire burned area, especially in late spring and autumn.
- Drought alters the typical rainfall-evapotranspiration balance, increasing fire risk.
- Projected drought trends suggest a potential lengthening of the fire season in the Mediterranean.
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