Insights from mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for scabies

Scabies was adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a Neglected Tropical Disease in 2017. There is currently no formal global scabies control programmes or existing WHO guidelines on scabies control although at least two countries, Fiji and Ethiopia, have adopted national approaches to scabies control. In February 2019 WHO held a first Informal Consultation on a Framework for Scabies Control, in part as a response to multiple national requests for guidance on public health management in high disease burden areas. Below we outline control strategies proposed at this meeting and summarise the role that modelling can play in supporting the development of evidence to translate these proposals into formal WHO recommendations and national and global control programmes. Provisional proposals discussed at the WHO Informal Consultation for a scabies control programme include the use of mass drug administration when the community prevalence of scabies is ≥ 10% (generally considered to reflect a childhood prevalence of at least 20%) and the use of intensified case management when the prevalence is below 10%.