Predicting Competition Performance in Short Trail Running Races with Lactate Thresholds

Area of Science:

• Exercise Physiology
• Sports Science
• Trail Running Performance Analysis

Background:

• Trail running is increasingly popular, but performance determinants remain unclear.
• Lactate thresholds are established predictors in road running, yet understudied in trail running.
• Limited data exists on the predictive value of lactate thresholds for trail running performance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between various lactate thresholds and performance in trail running.
• To determine if lactate thresholds can predict race times in trail running events.
• To assess the utility of lactate thresholds in designing training programs for trail runners.

Main Methods:

• Twenty-five trail runners underwent graded exercise tests to measure VO2max and lactate thresholds (LT aerobic, individual lactate threshold, LT4).
• Runners participated in 31.1 km (XS) and 21 km (XXS) trail races.
• Race performance times were correlated with lactate threshold measures.

Main Results:

• Significant negative correlations were found between LT4, individual lactate threshold, and LT aerobic with performance in the 31.1 km XS trail race.
• LT4 was a strong predictor of race performance in the XS trail race (R² = .753).
• Higher correlations were observed in slower runners compared to faster runners; no correlations were found for the XXS race.

Conclusions:

• Lactate thresholds, especially LT4, are valuable for predicting performance in longer trail running races.
• These findings support the use of lactate threshold data in developing tailored training plans for trail runners.
• The predictive value may differ based on race distance and runner's speed.