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Measuring the Structure, Composition, and Change of Underwater Environments with Large-area Imaging

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Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4.

Aafke M Schipper^1,2, Jelle P Hilbers¹, Johan R Meijer¹

¹PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.

Global Change Biology

|November 5, 2019

Summary

Future socio-economic pathways threaten terrestrial biodiversity intactness. A sustainability scenario shows a smaller decline than divided or fossil-fuelled futures, highlighting the need to reduce land demand and other pressures like climate change.

Keywords:

anthropocene biodiversity scenarios global environmental change land-use downscaling mean species abundance

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Biodiversity Conservation
Socio-economic Modeling

Background:

Scenario-based modeling is crucial for understanding future socio-economic impacts on biodiversity.
Terrestrial biodiversity intactness, measured by mean species abundance (MSA), is a key indicator of ecosystem health.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) combined with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
To project biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 using an updated GLOBIO model.

Main Methods:

Updated the GLOBIO model to a 10 arc-second resolution (~300 m).
Incorporated new modules for land-use downscaling and quantifying hunting impacts.
Included updated modules for climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation, and nitrogen pollution impacts.

Main Results:

Global area-weighted mean MSA was 0.56 in 2015.
Biodiversity intactness declined across all three scenarios (sustainability: -0.02; regional rivalry: -0.06; fossil-fuelled: -0.05).
Significant regional variations were observed, with sub-Saharan Africa facing substantial losses.

Conclusions:

Effective biodiversity conservation requires reducing land demand (e.g., through agricultural productivity and dietary shifts).
Mitigating other pressures, including climate change and road disturbance, is essential to halt or reverse biodiversity decline.