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How the Choice of Spatial Resolution Affects Freshwater Fish Species Distribution Models.

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Spatial resolution minimally impacts freshwater fish species distribution models' (SDMs) accuracy and variable importance. However, higher resolutions decrease predicted range size, potentially underestimating extinction risk.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Biogeography
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Species distribution models (SDMs) are crucial for predicting species responses to environmental change.
  • Methodological choices, particularly spatial resolution, significantly influence SDM outcomes but remain understudied for freshwater fish.
  • Understanding spatial resolution effects is vital for accurate ecological predictions and conservation planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze how spatial resolution affects the predictive accuracy, variable importance, and spatial predictions of freshwater fish SDMs in Europe.
  • To assess the implications of spatial resolution choices for conservation and extinction risk assessments.

Main Methods:

  • Fitted SDMs for 49 European freshwater fish species using point occurrence data and environmental/anthropogenic variables.
  • Aggregated predictor variables across five spatial resolutions (HydroSHEDS levels 8-12) using nested hydrological basins.
  • Employed an ensemble modeling approach with nine algorithms and analyzed performance on independent data.

Main Results:

  • Predictive performance (median TSS 0.37-0.39) and predictor importance (temperature, topography) were consistent across resolutions.
  • Predicted range size decreased significantly with increasing spatial resolution (higher resolution).
  • The discrepancy between predicted and observed range size increased at higher resolutions.

Conclusions:

  • Spatial resolution has a minor impact on the predictive performance and variable importance of European freshwater fish SDMs.
  • Resolution choice substantially influences predicted range size, with higher resolutions leading to smaller estimates.
  • Using the highest possible resolution in SDMs is recommended to avoid overestimating range size and underestimating extinction risk, adhering to the precautionary principle.