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Updated: Jan 4, 2026
Author Spotlight: Advancing Early Detection and Treatment of Gastrointestinal Tumors
Published on: February 16, 2024
Optimizing Survival Predictions of Hypopharynx Cancer: Development of a Clinical Prediction Model
Coralie R Arends1, Japke F Petersen1, Vincent van der Noort2
1Department of Head and Neck Oncology and Surgery, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Objectives:
To develop and validate a clinical prediction model (CPM) for survival in hypopharynx cancer, thereby aiming to improve individualized estimations of survival.
Methods:
Retrospective cohort study of hypopharynx cancer patients. We randomly split the cohort into a derivation and validation dataset. The model was fitted on the derivation dataset and validated on the validation dataset. We used a Cox's proportional hazard model and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selection. Performance (discrimination and calibration) of the CPM was tested.
Results:
The final model consisted of gender, subsite, TNM classification, Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 score (ACE27), body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin, albumin, and leukocyte count. Of these, TNM classification, ACE27, BMI, hemoglobin, and albumin had independent significant associations with survival. The C Statistic was 0.62 after validation. The model could significantly identify clinical risk groups.
Conclusions:
ACE27, BMI, hemoglobin, and albumin are independent predictors of overall survival. The identification of high-risk patients can be used in the counseling process and tailoring of treatment strategy or follow-up.
Level Of Evidence:
4 Laryngoscope, 130:2166-2172, 2020.
