Compartment models for vaccine effectiveness and non-specific effects for Tuberculosis

In this paper, we attempt to set a framework of conditions for model-specific predictions of newly arising TB epidemics by e.g. immigration of infected persons from high prevalence countries. In addition, we address the aspect of trained immunity in our model. Using a mathematical approach of a system of ordinary differential equations which can be developed over several time-points we obtained varying infection or attack rates that led to different effects of the vaccination, depending on the setting of certain parameters and starting values in the compartments of a SEIR-model. We finally obtained different graphs of disease progression and were able to outline which upgrades and expansions our system requires in order to be exact and well adapted for predicting the course of future TB outbreaks. The model might also be beneficial in predicting non-specific effects of vaccines.