Development of a Risk Score to Predict New Pacemaker Implantation After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

The aim of this study was to define risk factors and develop a predictive risk score for new pacemaker implantation (PMI) after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).

TAVR has become an accepted treatment alternative for patients with severe aortic stenosis at elevated surgical risk. New PMI is a common occurrence after TAVR and is associated with poorer outcomes.

All patients without prior valve procedures undergoing elective TAVR with the Edwards SAPIEN 3 at a single institution (n = 1,266) were evaluated. Multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate for predictors of PMI in this population in a derivation cohort of patients with complete data (n = 778), and this model was used to develop the Emory risk score (ERS), which was tested in a validation cohort (n = 367).

Fifty-seven patients (7.3%) in the derivation cohort required PMI. In a regression model, history of syncope (odds ratio [OR]: 2.5; p = 0.026), baseline right bundle branch block (OR: 4.3; p < 0.001), QRS duration ≥138 ms (OR: 2.5; p = 0.017), and valve oversizing >15.6% (OR: 1.9; p = 0.041) remained independent predictors of PMI and were included in the ERS. The ERS was strongly associated with PMI (per point increase OR: 2.2; p < 0.001) with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.778 (p < 0.001), which was similar to its performance in the derivation cohort.

A history of syncope, right bundle branch block, longer QRS duration, and higher degree of oversizing are predictive of the need for PMI after TAVR. Additionally, the ERS for PMI was developed and validated, representing a simple bedside tool to aid in risk stratification for patients for undergoing TAVR.