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Local demographic changes and US presidential voting, 2012 to 2016.

Seth J Hill1, Daniel J Hopkins2, Gregory A Huber3,4

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|November 21, 2019
PubMed
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Local demographic shifts, particularly immigration, did not benefit Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Instead, areas with increased immigrant populations showed a greater tendency to vote for his opponent.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Sociology
  • Demography

Background:

  • Immigration and demographic change are central issues in American politics, amplified by the 2016 presidential campaign.
  • Prior studies on immigrant influxes often focused on non-electoral results or used large geographic units like counties.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between low-level demographic changes and vote shifts towards an anti-immigration candidate in the 2016 US presidential election.
  • To analyze precinct-level data to understand the electoral impact of demographic shifts.

Main Methods:

  • Compiled a precinct-level dataset of election results and demographic data for over 32,000 precincts across seven US states.
  • Employed regression analyses, varying model specifications and demographic change measures to assess vote shifts between 2012 and 2016.

Main Results:

  • Found little evidence that increased Hispanic or noncitizen immigrant populations benefited Donald Trump compared to previous Republican candidates.
  • Observed that demographic changes at the precinct level were consistently associated with vote shifts towards Trump's opponent.

Conclusions:

  • Local demographic changes, including immigration, did not correlate with increased support for an anti-immigration candidate at the precinct level.
  • The study suggests that areas experiencing demographic shifts, particularly in immigrant populations, leaned towards Trump's opponent in the 2016 election.