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The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Lee Mordechai1,2, Merle Eisenberg3,4, Timothy P Newfield5,6

  • 1National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, MD 21401; lee.mordechai@mail.huji.ac.il.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|December 4, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The Justinianic Plague (541-750 CE) likely did not cause millions of deaths as previously estimated. New analysis of diverse datasets suggests continuity, not catastrophic mortality, during this period.

Keywords:
Justinianic PlagueLate AntiquityYersinia pestisfirst plague pandemicplague

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Area of Science:

  • Historical Epidemiology
  • Bioarchaeology
  • Ancient History

Background:

  • The Justinianic Plague is widely believed to have caused massive mortality, significantly impacting the transition from antiquity to the Middle Ages.
  • Existing estimates suggest tens of millions of deaths across the Mediterranean and Europe between 541 and 750 CE.

Observation:

  • This study re-evaluates numerous independent datasets, including written records, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology.
  • These diverse sources were examined for their links to demographic and economic trends during the plague period.

Findings:

  • The evidence does not support maximalist mortality estimates for the Justinianic Plague.
  • No single dataset clearly links plague outbreaks to significant demographic disruption.
  • Combined analysis of the data suggests continuity rather than a catastrophic decline during the plague era.

Implications:

  • The paradigm of the Justinianic Plague as a primary driver of late antique societal collapse requires revision.
  • Demographic, economic, and political changes in the 6th to 8th centuries may have had causes other than plague-induced mortality.
  • Further research should focus on re-interpreting historical events without relying on maximalist plague mortality figures.