Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Regional EMS System Utilization Using Statistical Modeling

Area of Science:

• Emergency medicine
• Public health systems
• Health services research

Background:

• Emergency Medical Services (EMS) utilization trends are crucial for financial and resource planning.
• Predictive modeling for EMS utilization, accounting for fluctuations, remains an area for development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze utilization patterns in a regional EMS system to meet population needs.
• To understand EMS call volume and transportation frequency.
• To forecast future EMS system usage using a predictive model.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of electronic medical records and computer-assisted dispatch (CAD) data (2010-2017).
• Calculation and trending of per capita 9-1-1 utilization, Advanced Life Support (ALS) utilization, and ALS cancellation rates.
• Application of the Additive Winter's approach for prediction modeling.

Main Results:

• Per capita 9-1-1 call volume increased by 32.46% (2010-2017).
• Per capita ALS call volume increased by 1.93% (2010-2017).
• ALS cancellations increased by 8% (2010-2017), with predictions showing continued upward trends.

Conclusions:

• Significant per capita increases in 9-1-1 call volume observed in the studied ALS system.
• Rising ALS cancellations before arrival suggest a potential strain on regional EMS resources.
• The findings highlight the need for proactive resource management and system planning.